Market analysis

Which moats actually hold at seed stage

Almost every deck claims defensibility. The useful test is time-to-neutralise: how long a well-funded competitor with the same idea would need to erase the advantage.

Published 25 August 2026 · 8 min read

Article

Ranked by time-to-neutralise

Claimed moatTime to neutraliseVerify by
Feature setWeeksCompetitor changelogs
UX qualityMonthsHead-to-head task timings
Proprietary data1-3 years, if genuinely exclusiveContractual exclusivity terms
Regulatory licence1-3 yearsLicence register entry and scope
Switching costYears, if embedded in workflowContract length and integration depth
Network effectsYears, if cross-sideRetention by cohort density

Data moats are usually not moats

A data advantage defends only when the data is exclusive, replenishing and directly improves the product for the buyer. Logs that any competitor would accumulate at the same rate on their own customer base are not exclusive; they are a by-product.

Ask what specifically breaks for a competitor who starts today with zero data. If the honest answer is "our recommendations get slightly better sooner", the moat is a head start, and head starts expire.

Distribution is the underrated one

An owned channel — an existing customer base, an exclusive integration slot, a regulated intermediary relationship — is often more durable than any product property, and is far easier to verify. Contracts either exist or they do not.

  • Named partners with signed agreements and terms
  • Integration placement that is capacity-limited by the platform
  • Customer acquisition cost falling as the channel matures

How to score it in a memo

Score defensibility on evidence type rather than on claim strength: contractual, structural, behavioural, or asserted. Only the first three belong in a weighted score; asserted defensibility belongs in the risk register as a dependency to re-check at the next round.

Part of a guide

Market sizing: TAM, SAM and SOM done properly

How to build market size from the bottom up: what belongs in TAM, SAM and SOM, how to calculate serviceable obtainable market from channel capacity, and how sizing interacts with defensibility.

Keep reading

Investment process

How to read a pitch deck in twelve minutes

A repeatable reading order for pitch decks: which four slides decide the meeting, what each one has to prove, and the questions that expose a weak deck fast.

Financial analysis

Burn rate and runway, calculated honestly

Gross versus net burn, why the runway number in most decks is optimistic, and the three adjustments that make it defensible before an investment committee.