Guide

Market sizing: TAM, SAM and SOM done properly

Almost every market size that fails scrutiny fails the same way: it starts from an analyst report and works down. This hub covers building the number from units instead, and defending it.

3 articles in this guide

Reading order

Work through it in sequence

Each article stands alone, but they are ordered the way the work happens on a live deal.

  1. How to calculate TAM, SAM and SOM without inventing numbers

    A practical bottom-up method for calculating TAM, SAM and SOM from unit counts and pricing, with the sanity checks investors apply and the shortcuts that get a deck rejected.

    11 August 2026 · 8 min read

  2. How do you calculate SOM?

    A step-by-step method for calculating serviceable obtainable market from channel capacity and conversion rates, rather than by taking a percentage of TAM.

    25 August 2026 · 6 min read

  3. Which moats actually hold at seed stage

    Most claimed moats are not moats at seed stage. A ranking of defensibility types by how quickly a funded competitor can neutralise them, with what to verify for each.

    25 August 2026 · 8 min read

Free resources

Do the work, not just the reading

The same methods, packaged as tools and templates you can use on a live deal today.

TAM / SAM / SOM builder

Free bottom-up market size calculator with a printable summary.